4. Systematic decision process

🧭 PROFESSIONAL TEE SHOT DECISION SYSTEM

(based on personal shot pattern, environment, and situational risk)

STEP 1 – KNOW YOUR SHOT PATTERN

Before anything, the player must know their data:

Data Type	Example Value	Description
Carry Distance	260m	Average carry with the club
Total Distance	275m	Carry + roll
Dispersion Width	60m	Full pattern (worst-left to worst-right)
Average Deviation	15m left	Typical mean miss direction
Shape Tendency	Small draw	Usual curvature pattern

➡️ This defines your “shot footprint” — the zone your ball typically lands in.

STEP 2 – READ THE ENVIRONMENT

Before choosing a club or line, analyze the hole in detail:

Hole layout: Straight / dogleg / elevation / wind direction.

Flag position: Where do you want to approach from? (favor best angle).

Hazards: Identify OB, water, bunkers, trees, roughs, slopes.

Fairway width: Measure available width at your typical landing distance.

Wind and slope: Note their direction and intensity — these alter your shot pattern.

Safe zones & trouble zones: Mark visually where a ball can and cannot go.

STEP 3 – MAP YOUR SHOT PATTERN ONTO THE HOLE

Overlay your shot footprint on the hole map:

Place your dispersion ellipse (e.g., 60m wide) at the carry distance for each possible club (Driver / 3W / Hybrid).

Shift the center of that ellipse 15m left of the target line if that’s your typical bias.

You can now see where most shots land, and where misses go.

👉 This visual step is crucial. It shows if your typical pattern fits inside the safe landing area or overlaps hazards.

STEP 4 – ADJUST TARGET AND AIM LINE

Once you know your shot pattern:

Shift your target line so your average shot finishes in the ideal spot (not your perfect shot).

Account for wind & slope: move your aim line to balance curvature or environmental forces.

Example: If your average drive finishes 15m left and there’s OB left, aim 15–20m right of your intended line to re-center dispersion safely.

🎯 Aim Correction Formula – Hazard Buffer Adjustment

To protect against stroke-loss penalties, use this buffer rule when deciding where to aim relative to hazards:

Penalty Type	Recommended Buffer from Hazard Edge
OB / Water	65% of your total dispersion width
Heavy Rough / Trees	40–50% of dispersion width
Light Rough / Fairway Bunkers	30–35% of dispersion width

Example:

If your driver’s dispersion width is 60m and OB is on the right side →

→ Aim 65% × 60m = 39m away from the OB line.

This re-centers your “shot footprint” toward safety and minimizes big-stroke losses.

🧠 Combine this with your average deviation (e.g., 15m left bias) and environmental effects (wind, slope) to find the true safe target line.

STEP 5 – DECISION SPIDER QUESTION CHART

Below is your decision map.

Start at the top and answer Yes / No until you reach a confident, data-based tee strategy.


🕸 TEE SHOT DECISION SPIDER

                      [TEE SHOT DECISION START]
                                  │
            ┌──────────────────────────────────────────┐
            │                                          │
     Do I clearly understand                     NO → Re-analyze
     hole layout, hazards, and                    (Look at map, yardage,
     flag position?                              wind, trouble zones)
            │
           YES
            │
 ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
 │ Is my driver’s shot pattern (e.g. 60m wide, │
 │ avg 15m left) safely inside landing zone?    │
 └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
            │
     YES → Aim adjusted for bias, wind, slope → CONFIRM & COMMIT
     NO ↓
 ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
 │ Is my 3-wood’s shot pattern safe in landing │
 │ zone (carry clears hazards)?                 │
 └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
            │
     YES → 3-wood is play → CONFIRM & COMMIT
     NO ↓
 ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
 │ Is hybrid / long iron safe and leaves ≤ 6i  │
 │ into green?                                 │
 └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
            │
     YES → Choose safest club → CONFIRM & COMMIT
     NO ↓
 ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
 │ Is there a lay-up zone before trouble?      │
 └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘
            │
     YES → Lay-up zone target → CONFIRM & COMMIT
     NO ↓
 ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
 │ Reassess: adjust aim or accept small risk.  │
 │ Choose most confident club under control.   │
 └─────────────────────────────────────────────┘

STEP 6 – CONFIDENCE CHECK

Before swinging, confirm:

✅ I know exactly where I’m aiming.

✅ My typical pattern fits safely within the zone.

✅ My miss bias avoids the biggest trouble.

✅ I’m confident in the club.

✅ I’ve accepted the risk and committed 100%.

If any are “No,” go back one step.

STEP 7 – EXECUTE WITH TRUST

Once the plan is chosen:

Visualize your exact flight and finish.

Feel the shot — not the fear.

Swing freely, fully committed.

🧩 Example

Player Data:

Driver: 260m carry / 60m width / 15m left bias

3W: 235m / 45m width / 10m left bias

Hybrid: 210m / 35m width / straight

Hole: 390m Par 4, fairway 45m wide, bunkers left at 250m, OB right.

Driver pattern overlaps bunkers → NO

3-wood fits safely → YES

3W leaves 155m to green (7-iron) → YES

✅ Decision: 3-wood aimed slightly right of center to offset 10m left bias.

Summary: Professional Decision Routine

Know your numbers (carry, dispersion, miss bias).

Analyze the hole (layout, hazards, wind, slope).

Map your shot footprint on the fairway.

Adjust aim for bias, environment, and hazard buffer percentages.

Follow the spider questions logically.

Confirm confidence, then commit.

🏁 This ensures you always play the smartest shot your data allows — not the longest or most heroic.