Shot pattern deviation adjustment

STEP FOUR — Direction Deviation Adjustment (Shot Pattern Direction Control)

Every player has a direction deviation with each club — the difference between their intended start line and their average real start line / curvature.
This step helps players correctly adjust their aim and choose a target line that keeps the entire shot pattern safe.

A. What Direction Deviation Means

Your directional shot pattern includes:
  • INTENDED direction (the line you want to start the ball on)
  • AVERAGE real direction (the line the ball actually starts on or curves toward)
  • WORST left miss (your farthest typical left deviation)
  • WORST right miss (your farthest typical right deviation)
Players must use actual dispersion, not what they “hope” their shot will do.

B. Deviation Calculation Rule

Directional Deviation = Intended Start Line – Average Real Start Line

If your real average tends to start more left or right than your intention,
you must adjust your target line by that difference.

Example (your original example transformed to direction):

  • Intended start line = straight at the flag
  • But your real average shot starts 3 yards right of the target

Deviation = 0 – (+3) = –3 yards

(negative meaning → your average miss is to the right)
➡️ Player must aim 3 yards LEFT of the target line
to bring the real average start line back to center.
This ensures the player aims based on real performance, not expectation.

C. How to Apply Deviation (Simple Rule)

If your real average misses RIGHT:

Aim left by the deviation amount.

If your real average misses LEFT:

Aim right by the deviation amount.
This step always comes before final aim point selection.

D. Left & Right Miss Safety Check

After adjusting for deviation:

✔ 1. WORST left miss must stay safe

  • If your farthest left miss brings the ball toward water, OB, or heavy rough →
      • You must aim farther right
      (toward safer zones).

✔ 2. WORST right miss must stay safe

  • If your farthest right miss brings the ball toward hazards →
      • Aim farther left.
The correct target line is the one that keeps
every possible directional outcome safe.

E. Safe Miss Hierarchy (Direction Version)

If both sides of the green have hazards,
aim so your common miss goes toward the safer side.
Safest → Most Dangerous
  1. Green (anywhere left/right)
  1. Side bunker
  1. Light rough around green
  1. Heavy rough / deep trouble
  1. Deep bunker (short-sided)
  1. No-go areas / recovery impossible zones
  1. Water / OB (worst possible)

F. Simple Summary (Player-Friendly)

  • Use your real directional average, not your intended start line.
  • Adjust your aim line by your deviation amount.
  • Worst left and worst right misses must both be safe.
  • Always bias your aim toward the safer side.
  • Bunker is always a better miss than water or OB.